Food Security in Africa

My last blog post reflects on the issues of food security in Africa. The world population is projected to reach 9.6 billion by 2050, which creates challenges regarding ensuring food security, while at the same time reducing greenhouse gas emissions.  More than half of this growth will happen in SSA (Sub-Saharan Africa); currently, 25 percent of the populations are affected by malnutrition ( (WRI,2018). ). This growth in population worldwide will require 69 percent more food calories compared to the demand in 2006. To prevent undernutrition, the world will need to produce 947 more calories per person per day by 2050.

Food plays an essential role in economic development, currently worldwide Around 2 billion people are employed in agriculture, many of them poor.  There is a need to find solutions that enhance the livelihoods of farmers, particularly the most disadvantaged. Also, poverty and inadequate incomes are fundamental issues., even if there is enough food available, people cannot afford it. Therefore, income growth is also essential to reduce global hunger sustainably. (OCED, 2013)

Most regions in the world have benefitted from the Green Revolution, for example in Asia where the cereal yields four folded between 1960 and 1990. ( WeForum, 2015). ). Figure 1 shows that SSA, has been lacking progress in cereal produces since 1961, and the region has the lowest cereal yields compared to other areas in the world. 

Figure 1.

(World Bank, 2015)

Africa continued to lack advancement in agricultural productivity, which has been negatively affecting economic growth in the region. The regions agrarian productivity is on average 300 to 500 kg/ha, which is very low compared to the US 2.5 tons/ha. ( WeForum, 2015).   African farmers lack access to improved seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides, furthermore, the knowledge and information to manage these effectively. The utilization of fertilizers in the world is on average 62 kg/ha, and SSA has the lowest at 11 kg/ha.  ( WeForum, 2015)

Food waste

Food waste is another challenge. Currently, African farmers lose roughly around 20 percent of their crop in the field, and an additional 20 percent after harvest to pests. ( WeForum, 2015). ). By decreasing the food waste rate by half, the food gap could be close by about 20 percent by 2050.  ( (WRI,2018). 

Climate change:

African crop yields are expected to be negatively affected by climate change.  The challenge is not only producing more food but also reducing the environmental impact. Worldwide agriculture contributes about 15 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, uses 37 percent of landmass, and uses 70 percent of all freshwater withdrawn from, e.g., rivers and lakes.

Figure 2.

(WRI,2018).

Irrigation

Climate change has impact weather patterns, and there will be need of more irrigation — approximately 80 percent of Africa's most disadvantaged groups living in rural areas, solely depending on rain-fed agricultural.  However, there is evidence that irrigated farms on average produce 90 percent higher than those nearby rain-fed farms.  A study suggests that with irrigation, that Africa has the potential to increase agricultural productivities by at least 50 percent.  The international organization has proposed increasing investments in irrigation in Africa significantly.

There are initiatives such as African Green Revolution working towards this goal in collaboration with the international agencies. The challenge with boosting irrigation is that investments in Africa highly depends on many factors such as geographic, economic and hydrologic. That need to be considered to estimate the long-term viability and sustainability of proposed plans.  (ifpri, 2010)  

Table 1.

Table 1 shows that Africa cultivates a somewhat lower part of its land area compared with the global average. Besides the region receives 124 millimeters less precipitation per year than the global average.  The table also shows that SSA the total water withdrawals per capita are less than half the global average, which can be a reason for the much lower share of the area used for irrigation, which is 6 percent compared to the world average of 18 percent.

A significant effort is needed to eliminate poverty and achieve food security in Africa - an effort that requires innovative strategies and support by international development partners. This cannot be accomplished without investing in human resources. This means putting people - their knowledge and information - at the center of agricultural and rural development efforts.(ifpri, 2010)

Education

Education seems to be an essential factor for yields. A study from 1992 conducted in Nigeria concluded that "an increase in the average education of farmers by one year increased the value added to agricultural production by 24 percent" ( (FAO, no date    ). Furthermore, in Burkina Faso, crop yields were roughly 30 percent higher for farmers who participate in training programmes compared to those who did not attend. ( (FAO, no date    ) Furthermore, the study concluded that both formal and non-formal training have a positive effect on agricultural productivity. Education on fertilizer use can reduce the environmental impact. A study in East Africa found that such training can increase the average incomes by 61 percent. (WeForum)

GM Crops

A controversial topic is the adoption of genetically modified (GM) crops. The research found that GM crops can increase yields by 22 percent, farmers profits by 68 percent and reduce pesticide use by 37 percent. However, the use of GM crops is limited in Africa due to many factors about GM foods. Nevertheless, experts argue that high-yield GM crops that are resistant to weather shocks are a way to address food insecurity. However, there are many problems associated with GM Crops as Monsanto an American company has sold GM seeds to African farmers and made them dependent, as these seeds cannot be recycled and therefore must be purchased every season by the developers.

The international donor's role is essential to fulfilling their commitment to helping African farmers and rural areas by implementing fair trade and preventing dumping of cheap Agrifood products from abroad.

Could ACFTA free trade deal be a new dawn for Africa?

The last blog post was discussing the World Bank report ‘Africa Can Help Feed Africa - Removing barriers to regional trade in food staples,’ on whether Africa can feed its population in the future. This post aims to elaborate on the arguments made in the previous post and discusses the trade agreement in East African Countries (EAC) to provide an example of intra-Africa regional trade agreements (RTA).

In the EAC states (Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, and Rwanda) and other developing countries, the agricultural sector is an essential factor for economic growth as the agricultural trade accounts for more than 40 percent of the total intra-regional trade which indicates that improving agricultural activities is expected to contribute significantly to economic growth and poverty reduction in the region. In 2010, The Common Market was introduced, in line with the EAC Treaty. Allowing for free movement of goods, persons, service, and capital. Ensuring the right to residency. (Eac.int, n.d.). Between 2013 and 2017 the EAC economy has had an average annual growth of 6.7 percent.  (MUGISHA, 2018)

Source: IMF: Direction of Trade Statistics, 2011.

Figure 1.2 shows the destinations of EAC exports. The leading importer of EAC products is EU followed by intra-regional exports whereas China is the least importing countries of EAC products. The figure also shows that the EAC exports have increased from 1985 to 2008 on average in the rest of the world and intra-EAC.

The EAC countries are collaborating to reach a goal of increasing the levels of interactions, transactions and gaining higher rates of economic growth and development.  This RTA is positive because most of the agricultural players are small-medium farmers in the developed countries and have challenges on entering the international market in the developed countries due to policies such as subsidization of local production and high standard requirements and tariffs.  The EAC trade agreement has strengthened the nations improving trade amongst themselves and gaining a better position and terms of trade in the world market. (Ouma, 2012)

 The study (Ouma, 2012) concluded that being a member of EAC had a significant effect on agricultural exports for Kenya and Tanzania, whereas the effect on Uganda, Burundi and Rwanda EAC membership on agricultural commodities was insignificant.  The study concluded that the effects of regionalism on agricultural trade of member states are not uniform across the members.

Kenya and Tanzania are the largest economies in the EAC region concerning GDP, production and population which can explain the growth in agricultural trading. However, there can be other factors such as the member states trade policy and the implementation stages. (Ouma, 2012)

 The EAC agreement shows that inter-regional trade is not always equal to growth.  It is, therefore, a complicated matter when discussing whether Africa can feed its population by increasing inter-regional trade.

 African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)

The main exporting countries in Africa are Egypt, Uganda, and Kenya, whereas the main importers are Libya and Egypt. (Ouma, 2012)

The intra-regional trade in Africa lies well below that of other regions, 18 percent of total exports, compared to 59 percent and 69 percent for intra-Asia and intra-Europe exports (Sow, 2018).

Forming a regional trade alliance has long been an essential aspiration for Africa yet, some progress in reducing tariffs within regional communities; the African market remains profoundly fragmented. A variety of non-tariff and regulatory barriers still raise trade costs and limit the movement of goods, services, people and capital across borders throughout Africa. (World Bank, 2015)

Currently, Africa is a step closer to realize a continent-wide trade deal. In 2018, eighty percent of African states signed the AfCFTA, which is said to be the most significant free trade agreement since the creation of the World Trade Organisation in 1995. The Agreement binds states to cancel tariffs on 90 percent of goods to encourage intra-African trade.   Nevertheless, the two biggest economies in Africa, Nigeria, and South Africa have not yet signed the AfCFTA agreement. There are possibilities for regional growth that are reinforced by the resolution of the long-standing political conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia, which assures economic gain in the Horn of Africa.  There are critics of this agreement who are afraid that it will only benefit the elite in Africa. Moreover, why not consider the needs of people from lower social classes. Besides, experts warn that strong nationalist and protectionist stands could undermine the implementation of AfCFTA.

It is a complicated subject, and there are many aspects to consider when discussing whether intra-African trade can promote economic growth and improve food security. 

References:

  Eac.int. (n.d.). Common Market. [online] Available at: https://www.eac.int/common-market [Accessed 29 Dec. 2018].

MUGISHA, I. (2018). Nationalism in East Africa could derail AfCFTA. [online] The East African. Available at: https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Nationalism-in-EAC-could-derail-continental-trade-bloc/2560-4870596-td2h1x/index.html [Accessed 29 Dec. 2018].

Ouma, D. (2012). AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN EAST AFRICAN COMMUNITY ,2000-2012. Graduate Doctor of Philosophy. Economics of Kenyatta University.

Sow, M. (2018). Figures of the week: Africa’s intra- and extra-regional trade. [online] Brookings. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2018/03/29/figures-of-the-week-africas-intra-and-extra-regional-trade/. [Accessed 29 Dec. 2018].

World Bank, 2012: available at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTAFRICA/Resources/Africa-Can-Feed-Africa-Report.pdf

World Bank. (2015). Deepening African Integration: Intra-Africa Trade for Development and Poverty Reduction. [online] Available at: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/speech/2015/12/14/deepening-african-integration-intra-africa-trade-for-development-and-poverty-reduction [Accessed 29 Dec. 2018].

Can Africa help feed Africa?

                             

“By 2030, end hunger and ensure access by all people, in particular the poor and people in vulnerable situations, including infants, to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round.” (UN, 2015) 

In the search for food security in Africa, I found an interesting report in 2012 by The World Bank:  “Africa Can Help Feed Africa - Removing barriers to regional trade in food staples.”  

The study argues that an increase in regional trade would be the most effective way to advance food security and economic growth on the continent. Furthermore, it emphasizes the importance of investments in technology, quality-seeds, and fertilizers to produce enough food to feed 854 million malnourished people as stated in the report.  I found this study interesting as the aspect of food security is different from that in Public Health. The underlying issues of food insecurity vary from disruptive policies, social inequalities, limited access to land and water, poor agricultural sectors and rural infrastructure. These topics are ones that I intend to write about in future blog posts. Today’s post is a reflection on how trade policies affect food security within Africa.
 

It was surprising that, while Africa’s food staple production is worth at least US$ 50 billion per year at the market value, the continent spends nearly 35 billion US dollars each year importing food. Furthermore, the cost of imported food is projected to increase to 110 billion US dollars by 2025. (World Bank 2008).  In the 1970s, Africa contributed 8 % to the world’s total agricultural output. Today, this number has dropped to 3.8 % (Verason, Otavio, 2017). One explanation for this is that Africa’s regional trade in staples is not being exploited even though it creates an enormous potential for growth. In 2008, African cereal imports were estimated to be around US$15.2 billion (World Bank, 2012) yet, just 5 % of all grain imported by African countries are regional. This trend can partially be explained by the growing trends in population, low stagnating in agricultural productivity, poor infrastructure, weak institutions and most importantly failures in trade policies across the continent. (World Bank, 2012).

If Africa’s farmers do not produce more food, the import bills for food will rise substantially especially in urban areas and the net import of food will increase significantly (Otavio Verason, 2017).  For a continent with such a vast arable and booming young population, it should be able to produce and export to reduce poverty within Africa 

The key barriers to trade: 

It is a well-known fact that barriers to trade in the value chain of food staples are:  a) barriers to trade that limit access to seeds and fertilizers; b) factors that lead to high transport cost in Africa; c) dangers of crossing borders, especially for small informal traders many of whom are women; d) costs of opaque and unpredictable trade policies that limit trade in staples across borders, mainly non-tariff barriers (NTBs); and e) inefficient distribution services that fail to link poor producers to poor consumers. (World Bank, 2012).  Figure 1 below shows the issue associated with trading staples across borders. For example, 85 percent of the participants experienced some form of bribery, and 60 percent were fined for activities related to the trade. Although these issues persist today, one should consider the low number of participants in the survey and the fact that it was conducted in 2010. As East African countries have improved trade links since 2012 (WTO, 2012). 

figure 1. 

Source: World Bank, 2012 

If national governments address these barriers, it may improve the ‘soft’ infrastructure needed for good cross-border relations. This is important because the increased regional trade has the potential to (a) expand the size of Africa’s market for food staples, (b) boost agricultural growth in surplus zones, and (c) mitigate shortages in deficit ones. Besides, regional trade in food staples can also help moderate price volatility in African food staple markets (World Bank, 2012). 

The World Bank report uses a comparison between Africa and other developing countries with similarities in social and climatic conditions as an exemplar on how to increase agricultural productivity. This can be seen in figure 2 that compares the decline in the net trade position. While Africa’s imports of food staples have grown at a much faster rate than exports, other regions such as Central Asia, South Asia, and East Asia have narrowed the gap between imports and exports substantially. These regions have gone from being net importers to net exporters past the 20 years. 

Figure 2:

 

Source: World Bank, 2012 

Africa has only 5 percent of its cultivated land has access to use irrigation (most farmers depend on rainfall), whereas 38 percent of arable land is irrigated in Asia (World Bank, 2012).  Another aspect is the quality of the soil, for instance. Average fertilizer usage in Ghana is 7.4 kg per hectare, meanwhile, in South Asia, the average is more than 100kg fertilizer per hectare. Furthermore, FAO estimates show that the yield of rice and wheat per unit area in Asia has nearly tripled over 25 years due to new crops, fertilizers, pesticides and right market conditions with affordable prices for fertilizers, rice, and wheat (World Bank, 2012).  Although, in general comparisons help to understand better the different mechanisms that drive agriculture, it is important not to generalize. There are significant differences between Africa and Asia, even within the same countries. It is therefore difficult to have an "ideal" approach to increasing sustainable agricultural productivity.

There is, however, substantial evidence that the trends in import within Africa and other developing regions insinuate that the domestic factors can explain the fundamental causes of the increase in net imports of staples in Africa. Which is good news because that means that Africa has the potential to solve its food insecurity issues and I intend to elaborate on this argument in a future blog post. 


Thank you for reading this post!

References: 

Otavio Verason, 2017

Available at: https://www.howwemadeitinafrica.com/agriculture-africa-potential-versus-reality/57635/

United Nations, 2015 available at: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/21252030%20Agenda%20for%20Sustainable%20Development%20web.pdf 

World Bank, 2012: available at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTAFRICA/Resources/Africa-Can-Feed-Africa-Report.pdf

World Trade Organisation, 2012: available at https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/tp371_e.htm

Welcome to my first blog post!

Hello and welcome to my first blog post! 
 
This post aims to share a little about myself and my motivation for starting this blog. If you are more interested in discussions on water scarcity and food security - The next post is just for you!

My name is Ayan Musa Ahmed, and when I was six years of age, my family and I fled Somalia because of the conflicts, which arose the civil war. We sought refuge in Denmark where I have been living since. I am grateful for the opportunities, which have been given to me and the right to an education and its effect on my future are one of the many opportunities I hold dear to my heart.
I find it necessary to share this with you as it is the essence of my motivation in learning about this beautiful continent! The topic Water and Development in Africa was an obvious choice as an elective module at UCL.

My decision to focus my blog on water and food stems from my background in Nutrition and Health that I am pursuing at University College Copenhagen. I am very passionate about human rights in the context of health inequalities, and I hope to touch upon this while exploring the issues regarding water and food in Africa. Also, I will share my thoughts on concerns regarding food security, water, sanitation and diseases in Africa.

As this is my first blog, it is a learning experience for me! Questions, feedback or criticism are appreciated!

 

(I took this photo in 2016 in Hargeisa, while I was visiting family.  On the picture you see my cousin's two sons and the only water cistern in the household)